HAWK Earnings Recap
Great quarter, great outlook, great Q&A. Fortress balance sheet and premium valuation.
Headline Numbers & Comps
Revenue: $49.8M (+87% YoY from $26.6M)
International Revenue: $21.0M (+134% YoY from $9.0M)
Net Loss: $15.3M (vs. net income of $1.6M prior year)
Adjusted EBITDA: $7.0M (vs. $7.8M prior year)
Free Cash Flow: $5.4M (vs. -$1.3M prior year)
Backlog: $292.2M (up from $285.0M at Q1 end)
H1 2026
Revenue: $99.6M (+101% YoY from $49.6M)
Adjusted EBITDA: $14.4M (vs. $11.7M prior year)
Full-Year 2026 Guidance
Revenue: $215–220M
Adjusted EBITDA: $30–36M
Back-half projections based on guidance
Revenue: $115.4M – $120.4M
(vs. ~$68.1M in H2 2025 → roughly +70% to +77% YoY)
Adjusted EBITDA: $15.6M – $21.6M
(vs. $14.4M in H1 2026)
Commentary
First off, the call went really well. I was impressed by how clearly and confidently they answered questions. Balance sheet is strong, roughly $503M in cash after the IPO. Debt remains low, and they also put a new $125M revolving credit facility in place for added flexibility.
Valuation is rich, but the growth rate, expanding moat, and high-quality backlog justify a premium. Backlog continued to rise and management expects that number to keep climbing as more partnerships are signed. They noted that about $82M of the current backlog should convert in the second half of the year, giving solid visibility into H2.
I view the guidance as conservative and intentionally set up for a potential beat-and-raise later in the year, given how professional and measured management sounded. The ISA acquisition is already delivering, something I have been vocal on. It has reduced latency, enabled collection of signals they previously couldn’t capture, and is allowing them to provide more value to customers, further expanding the moat.
Key operational highlights:
Multi-year Indian Navy / regional partners contract for maritime domain awareness in the Indian Ocean
Demonstrated commercial-enabled track custody with Lockheed Martin at Valiant Shield 2026 (achieved record low latency)
Cluster 14 reached Full Operational Capacity in the shortest commissioning period in company history
They expect a couple of new partnerships to be announced soon. Management is particularly constructive on Europe as more countries increase investment in independent data collection and ISR capabilities following the lessons of the Ukraine war.
Next clusters of satellites are progressing, though behind schedule. Cluster 15 is expected to launch in the back half of the year, along with additional capacity and the first Block 3 Kestrel satellites. The company has all launches booked through 2028 (currently with SpaceX). After that they plan to diversify to other providers such as Firefly, Stoke, and Rocket Lab. Management does not see launch availability as a bottleneck.
Adjusted EBITDA was roughly flat YoY despite the strong revenue growth due to higher stock-based compensation, IPO-related costs, ISA integration expenses, and ongoing constellation investment. Management expects margins to remain similar in Q3 and begin expanding again in Q4.
12-month PT: $40
10-Q is expected to drop tomorrow. I’ll post any updates if needed.
DISCLAIMERS: This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of any affiliated organization; they are subject to change without notice and are based on information believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Investing in securities involves significant risk, including the potential loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.